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  • The Pacific Islands region remains under an El Niño Watch.

The Pacific Islands region remains under an El Niño Watch.

Posted on Nov. 26, 2014

The Pacific Islands region remains under an El Niño Watch.

Tropical cyclones have recently impacted the Hawaiian Islands and Guam/CNMI, contributing to above normal rainfall in this areas. Hawaii has experienced well above normal rainfall, effectively removing all drought areas in the state. Drier than usual weather has developed for American Samoa. Sea levels are falling across the western Pacific islands, indicating a gradual transition to an El Niño. On Nov. 4, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 index region was +0.6°C. Agriculture on the Big Island of Hawaii suffered $66 million losses, including the majority of Hawaii's papaya crop, due to impacts from Tropical Storm Iselle. Significant coral bleaching has occurred in Hawaii, Guam/CNMI, and RMI. Looking ahead, a weak El Niño is still forecast for the northern hemisphere winter season (58% chance). Above-normal sea surface temperatures should continue for regions east of the Date Line. Rainfall should be near-normal for most of the western Pacific islands but slightly below normal for Hawaii and American Samoa. The central/eastern Pacific hurricane season is coming to a close, but there is a higher risk for late-season tropical cyclones in Micronesia and lower risk for the western Pacific.